Many liberal commentators wanted to give President Obama credit for the successful uprising in Egypt.  Supposedly it was a sign that the new President was more effective in promoting democracy with his beautiful words, compared to President Bush’s warmongering.  Most Americans celebrate the Arab Spring in general, not waiting for the outcome.  Yet in Egypt, citizens are now protecting their once adored military in Tahrir Square not eight months after celebrating with them.  Egypt is one of many reasons Americans should take a wait-and-see approach to the Arab Spring.

The Egyptian military has been very reluctant to give power over to a civilian government.  The current military government has worked hard to insulate the military from any civilian interference.  It has also failed to end the brutally oppressive practices that motivated the uprising in the first place (in addition to horrible economic conditions).  Most importantly, Egyptian elections have been delayed several times, making some Egyptians fear that nothing has really changed.

There is hope.  The protests in Tahrir Square this week demonstrate the people are not prepared to let power transfer from one brutal dictatorship to another.  Liberal groups joined with the Muslim Brotherhood, demanding new elections soon and civilian oversight of the military.  The two rival factions have been pushed together due to the military’s refusal to make a meaningful effort towards transferring power to a civilian government.

For the U.S., this situation continues to get more complicated.  The institution most closely supportive of U.S. interests is the military.  A civilian government is likely to distance itself from Washington and might even redefine its relationship with Israel.  To make matters worse, of all the non-military political factions, the Muslim Brotherhood remains the strongest.

At this point there are no “good” outcomes for the US.  If the military decides not to hand over power to a civilian government, the protests and violence could continue.  Another possibility is a possible guerilla war, with the normally peaceful Muslim Brotherhood shifting tactics to embrace terrorism as a means of achieving their political goals.  Since the U.S. has a close relationship with the Egyptian military, it may become the target of even more Egyptian anger and resentment.