The Tea Party, high off their 2010 victories, thought they could push through a Tea Party candidate for President.  There were so many promising candidates and plenty of energy.  But in the end, none of their favorites decided to run.  Republicans remain undecided for the most part but one thing is for sure: the Republican nominee will not be a Tea Party conservative.  The Tea Part must refocus their efforts on Congress in adding to their ranks in both chambers.

It is hard to judge exactly how strong the Tea Party is.  There have been no recent surveys.  Back in 2010 it looked as if it had significant strength in many Congressional elections.  In places like Wisconsin, Kentucky, and Florida – they pushed their candidates to victory.  From all these wins it seemed plausible to put the Tea Party’s strength somewhere around 30 percent of the electorate.

However, this likely overestimates their strength.  Despite their victories, the Tea Party has only 30-40 members in the House (less than 10 percent).  There are plenty of conservative Republicans that aren’t part of the official Tea Party caucus but at best the Tea Party faction comes in at perhaps 50-70 members.  In the Senate, there are no more than five (Paul, Johnson, DeMint, Rubio, Lee).

From a national standpoint there are plenty of regions where the Tea Party failed to make an impact in 2010.  In New England and New York, not a single Tea Party candidate won.  There were also notable defeats out west.  In California, Oregon, Washington, and Nevada the Tea Partiers were unable to get any of their people in.  These two regions alone are worth 139 electoral votes.

Make no mistake, the Tea Party is a major political force.  They are not to be ignored but their strength is unevenly distributed across the country.  They are particularly strong in parts of the South, Midwest, and Mountain regions.  Look for them to significantly influence Congressional races in those areas.  However, to win the Presidency a candidate needs 270 electoral votes.  The “Tea Party regions” just don’t get her there.

The Tea Party also failed to get one of their leaders to run for President.  Sarah Palin, the most well-known, decided not to run.  Budget hero Paul Ryan also opted out.  Several popular governors also decided not to run including Mitch Daniels, Haley Barbour, Bobby Jindal, and Chris Christie.

Some thought Rick Perry was the answer.  However, his debate gaffes and inability to clearly articulate his positions clearly demonstrate he is a third-rate candidate.  Michele Bachmann is a Tea Party hero but extremely divisive.  She also stepped in it with her Gardasil statement and other inaccurate claims during debates.  Herman Cain and Newt Gingrich have gotten a look but both have serious drawbacks.

Gingrich is no Tea Partier.  He may not be an establishment Republican but he is not a Tea Partier either.  His previous positions on the individual mandate, global warming, and immigration demonstrate a more mixed ideology.  His record of supporting federalism is also iffy at best.

If the Tea Party can’t get their candidate nominated for the Presidential race, what do they do?  If a moderate is elected President, the Tea Party must look to Congress to promote their positions.  They already have some sway in the House but they need to strengthen it by getting more people elected in 2012.  They also need to get more of their people elected to the Senate.

Unfortunately, the Tea Party has been unable to get the high-quality recruits they ran in 2010.  Republican establishment-types like Orrin Hatch, Dick Lugar, and Dean Heller look like they will go on to win their primaries.  In Democratically-held seats, Tea Party challengers are not doing as well.  In Virginia, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Missouri, Wisconsin, Montana, Minnesota, and New Jersey no viable candidate has emerged.

There are some bright spots.  Connie Mack decided to run for Senate in Florida.  Ted Cruz and Clark Durant look like they could be formidable candidates in Texas and Michigan respectively.  Josh Mandel shows promise in Ohio as well.

Despite the challenges ahead, the Tea Party will be a potent political force in 2013.  Even if the next President is a moderate, the Congress will definitely be more conservative and “Tea Party-friendly.”  The question is how friendly.  They have the potential to expand their ranks in the House and Senate if they can recruit more candidates for key races.  There is still time.   More highly qualified freedom-loving individuals need to step up and run for public office.

Comments?  E-mail me at This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it .